By Patrick Conroy
A UBC researcher may have found a way to significantly reduce rework in software projects, and Annex is helping him investigate this high-value possibility.
Patrick Conroy, taking a break from a 35+ year career in business, has moved to the academic world to investigate an idea that occurred while quaffing a beer on a friend's deck one summer day (what a good use for beer, sun and a deck!). After years of trying just about everything to reduce defects in the software engineering lifecycle, he now thinks he has identified a powerful tool to eliminate part of the 40% to 70% of software project time and cost that goes to rework. And what is that tool? You. Yes, you, whether your role in this fractious, complex, very human mix of science and art is as a developer, architect, tester, tech writer, configuration manager, business analyst, database analyst, support analyst, manager, executive, or any other – each of you holds the key to better outcomes for your project, your business, your career, yourself. Before your eyes glaze over, this is not a pitch for some kind of yoga, power bonding or colorectal cleansing. Read on – this one has a chance.
What is it about you that has been so clearly overlooked? In short, Cognitive Biases, or more precisely, their mitigation. We all have them, we're born with them, they can't be altered, they operate automatically, and – here's the problematic part – UNCONSCIOUSLY. You simply cannot prevent that part of your reasoning mechanism from doing its thing, even if what it wants you to do is just plain irrational. Fifty years of psychological research have demonstrated that humans can, reliably, be made to act irrationally with no trickery involved, simply by triggering one or another Cognitive Bias. No amount of self-monitoring, raw intelligence, training or knowledge can help you – that part of your thinking machine will betray you every time. In fact, the hidden nature of Cognitive Biases is what marketers (and anyone else trying to sell you a product, an idea, a belief, whatever) rely on to get us to make that purchase, which we often puzzle over later and too often regret.
What does this have to do with software? Consider these Cognitive Biases: Confidence Bias (we tend to overestimate our abilities), Hindsight Bias (we tend to forget that we screwed up last time), Sunk Cost Bias (we tend to not abandon losing causes), Anchoring Bias (we tend to estimate too close to an arbitrary 'anchor', such as an executive's budget), Confirmation Bias (we tend to seek only that information that supports our preconceptions), and my favourite – the Bias Bias (we tend to believe we aren't as biased as everybody else!). These are just a handful of the 100 or so Cognitive Biases psychologists have repeatedly verified as invisible saboteurs of our personal reputations, our customers' dissatisfaction, and our companies’ bottom lines. And that's just what happens at work…
OK, you say, I can see that Cognitive Biases might be a factor in software, but if they're automatic and unconscious, how can they be avoided?
Good question – and exactly the one that Mr. Conroy is focused on in his research. He thinks he's spotted a glitch in the orthodox explanation for Cognitive Biases and therefore an opening for a systematic way to counter their negative outcomes. The details can't be explained in a short article like this, but the crux of it is that the mechanisms that give rise to the 'reasoning errors' called Cognitive Biases are not flaws in our reasoning mechanism, but features of a superbly crafted machine incorrectly employed due to the gulf between today's challenges and those extant when these mechanisms arose in us. Conroy thinks he may be able to prevent this misapplication from occurring in some circumstances, and in others, to de-bias incorrect judgments before they are turned into action. And the best part: it will be easy, unobtrusive and nearly free, eventually perhaps an app on your favourite device! In such a future, perhaps we will routinely consult our 'Reasoning Coach' avatar before making that big decision…
And when will this magic elixir be available? According to Mr. Conroy, definitely not next Tuesday, and not next month. However, depending on how his research goes, useful pieces could be flowing as early as mid next year. And this is where Annex is helping to make a difference. Stacey Cerniuk, Annex President and CEO, saw the potential value in this project and jumped on board early this year, offering to sponsor the research in partnership with the Canadian federal government. This support has already enabled Conroy to perform a small but important portion of his overall research program, in which Annex Alliance members (and a few non-members who got wind of it) volunteered as study subjects. The terms of UBC's Behavioural Research Ethics Board prevent detailed description of the research at this time, but a report on its goals, methods and results is expected in the next few months. Way to go, Annex! And way to go Alliance members!
There's a lot more about this initiative that could be said, and that we expect will be said, in these pages in the future. For now, consider: Would you like to know when you are likely to unconsciously commit specific errors in judgment? Would you appreciate having a choice to not act on those errors?
PS: Annex intends to support this initiative into the future. If you would like to stay informed, or proactively participate, watch these pages and your emails from Annex. In addition, Mr. Conroy can be reached at PFConroy@gmail.com. He's busy, but is always willing to talk about things that matter. This matters.
About the Author
Patrick Conroy's 35+ year career focused primarily on quality assurance, project management and business process improvement, with assignments around the world as a practitioner, consultant and executive. Having retired a few years ago to contemplate what really makes the world work, he was struck by an idea that gives him another chance to do what he failed to do during his career, namely make a dent in the very poor quality record the software industry seems to think is OK. In this worthy adventure he is drawing on his experience as a father (patience, understanding, sense of humour) and amateur philosopher (curiousity, rigor, sense of awe). His lifetime goal is serenity through paying attention, trying stuff, and accepting what comes.